Nature of Science

Science is never fully right, but it is the best bet. Greg Craven states a very valid point with this statement. In the discussion around climate change it should be considered that science, although it is never completely certain, it has always proven to have the best chances of predicting future events. Especially the first part of The Nature of Science deals with this issue. He stresses multiple times that scientists constantly revise theories and try to improve the precision and accuracy of the measurements to decrease the uncertainty but also acknowledge the fact that an absolute certain measurement is impossible to achieve. Since there is always an uncertainty this leaves room for argument, unfortunately also for climate critics. As the physics teacher argues, this allows the unreasonable scepticism that is in the world right now. Instead of holding this uncertainty as a flaw, it rather should be acknowledged that the scientific predictions and theories have the lowest uncertainty out of all claims. For that reasons science is usually well trusted and itself very picky about the measuring methods and claims. Some of the predictions made by scientists about the climate destabilisation might turn out to be wrong; however this does not prove the whole theory wrong, since it was clear from the beginning that there would be uncertainty in the predictions.

Consequently one of the most vital actions to take is revising and editing the theories. Greg Crave states two important aspects in connection to this, trying to disprove an argument makes it stronger, such as the theory of gravity (video 2, 1:50) and admitting that one was wrong makes the argument more reliable. When looking for the evidence for a particular theory it is important to try to prove it wrong and look for counter arguments to the point one is making. If trying to disprove a theory consistently does not work and the counter arguments, such as those to climate change, come from non reliable sources, then it only strengthens the point. If it indeed can be disproved or there are found flaws that do not mean the theory is disproven, it just needs to be revised. Admitting into the mistakes and changing them makes the source more reliable and that constantly happens with the climate theories. He makes an excellent point that is not only relevant on the big scale and in science, admitting in to the mistakes allows improvement.

Modern society is a society of specifying, there is a huge supply of people and necessary to specify in order to make a living. There are specialists and experts for almost any topic in the world and when help is needed people trust these experts. As Craven correctly points out, many people have doubt in the scientists, the experts; because they think they know better than the experts. However the situation is very complex and climate change a severe topic, therefore it is vital to rely on the experts and almost all reliable scientists confirm climate destabilisation. Not relying on the expert opinion counters all logic thinking and Greg Craven is trying his best to open people’s eyes.

One reason why there are so many sceptics is that everybody has some sort of bias. As the physicist demonstrates in a row of examples, that can be seen in Part 1 and the beginning of Part 2, we all have assumption we make. He quotes Douglas Adams on “Assumptions are the things you don’t know you have” and those assumptions make us unconsciously bias. When humans have an opinion or a believe about a topic they look for evidence to back it up. Since they already have an opinion they are valuing the evidence that speaks for their opinion more than other evidence although that might be stronger. This way individuals think that their believe is true, although based on the real evidence is not. Assessing data is critical and therefore it is necessary to know the assumptions one has in order to draw the right conclusions of the evidence. It needs skill as well as experience, both factors that science and scientists have developed and therefore are better analyzers of the situation.

Commentary reflection

Commentary reflection

What went well?
Once I actually started writing the annotations I did in the passage; the different parts started joining together into ideas that served the theme. Also there was no lack of material to write about and although I needed more time than I would like to have taken find the literary devices, there were enough to write about.
Where you struggled?
I had trouble deciding on which theme to address since the passage had a summary of the previous chapters, so there was a row of themes that I considered. This was probably the biggest problem since everything else is supposed to be in service of the themes. Furthermore I had troubles finding the right words for the introduction and deciding how much to space to delicate to the context.

completed paragraph

“That is impossible”, often this phrase is used as an exaggeration to state how unlikely it is that an event is taking place. The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy uses this fact to take it to an extreme for humorous purpose. The idea behind it is the case of the impossible or at least the very unlikely. One theme therefore is the probability of the improbable, which recurs throughout the whole radio script. An important motif in service of this theme is the improbability drive which is invented precisely in this passage, supported by literary devices to help to evoke amusement. Examples of these literary devices are the intertextuality, irony and logical fallacy. The motif, the improbability drive, which is later revealed, enables a space ship to be at every point of the universe at the same time, is a rather absurd and impossible object. In order to make sense of it in a humorous way logical fallacy is applied. A student left behind in the lab to clean up after an unsuccessful party, which is irony, since one would expect that he would clean up an experiment, figured out that since it was impossible to invent a improbability drive he just needed to calculate how unlikely it actually was. The process as it is explained itself follows a logical structure that ends in the invention; however the end result is so absurd and impossible that this process is called logical fallacy. Precisely the fact that it is absurd causes the amusement in the reader. Also in service of that improbability is the use of intertextuality which is another literary device applied and references to the argument that if enough monkeys have a typewriter, eventually one types the script for Hamlet, again an absurd scenario and therefore amusing. The absurdity of the passage enforced by the literary devices is responsible in the humour of the probability of the improbable.

Outline

The ability to create custom made planets by using white holes in the “glorious days of the Former Galactic Empire” already give a clear indication of genre this passage taken from The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy belongs in the category of Science fiction. The reason why this can already be seen only within the first sentence is the use of conventions. Just as in any other genre in any written piece the conventions in Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy serve the codes, such as theme and characters to create a humorous science fiction radio play. The themes such as the insignificance of mankind and the relation of past and presence are enforced through a row of literary devices ranging from intertextuality to irony and sarcasm, which often create absurd scenarios, all for the humorous effect.



Paragraph 1:
Thesis: In this passage one of the main themes of the radio script on the big scale takes its beginning, the probability of the improbable.

Examples: Invention of the improbability drive
Examples: Jargon, logical fallacy

Paragraph 2:
Thesis: Furthermore another theme plays a vital role in the paragraph, the distinguishing between the cool and trendy objects and pastimes in the universe in contrast to the uncool part of the universe
Convention Examples: Irony, Juxtaposition, Physicists-uncool

Paragraph 3:
Another theme of the Hitchhikers guide to the Galaxy finds it origin in this passage, the power of a cup of tea and motif of the cup of tea is a red thread though the whole book

Examples: Invention, it is ubiquitous


All of these themes, as well as other codes such as the characters and the plot built the base to define the genre of the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy. The themes of the probability of the improbably, the power of a cup of tea and the argument what is cool and what is not keep on recurring throughout the whole script. Together with the use literary conventions of irony, logical fallacy, etc. to create humour through language it creates this parody of the genres science fiction and serial, which is highly successful in evoking amusement in the reader.

Copenhagen 2

During the protests in Copenhagen 200 activists were arrested, one times reporter amongst them. All but 13 were released the next day, however the demonstrators complain about the harsh police treatment. However it was justified in some cases as some riots broke out amongst the 40 000 demonstrators and vandalism occurred.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/copenhagen/article6954981.ece

Copenhagen

For the climate conference in Copenhagen it is not clear if it will be a success since there are problems between the US and China. The draft is that at least 50%, 85%, or 95% of the emissions are cut by 2050 compared with 1990. US does not want to give any money to China and other developing economies since they have large money reserves. China however demands the money since it argues that the West has the duty to provide money and technology. The EU also took an important step in trying to make the meeting successful by offering 2.4 billion Euros a year for developing countries for emission reduction

Original article: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126053354299387331.html

Haiku

The soul of the earth,
Murdered through the hand of Adam,
Falling into darkness,

Calm lakes of green
With a golden spark
Of incredible depth

Ready for the last blow
Is the fading assassin,
With the breath of life.